Risk management in Libya: Learning from Experiences from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East

• Abdelwanees Ashoor

  Omar Al-Mukhtar University

• Hakim S. Abdelgader

  University of Tripoli

Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards, increasingly intensified by climate change, rapid urbanization, and fragile governance systems. The Derna disaster in Libya in September 2023, marked by the catastrophic collapse of two dams, highlighted the severe limitations of outdated structural defenses and the absence of complementary non-structural measures. This study analyzes international flood risk management (FRM) strategies in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Bangladesh, and Saudi Arabia, examining the evolution of each nation's approach from substantial reliance on structural protections to the adoption of integrated frameworks that balance engineered infrastructure with policy, governance, and community preparedness. The paper draws from these diverse contexts to develop a comprehensive FRM framework for Libya, adapted to its unique hydrological and geological conditions. The proposed framework is structured around the World Meteorological Organization's four-pillar early warning model—namely, risk knowledge, monitoring and forecasting, warning dissemination, and preparedness—while embedding governance reforms, financial sustainability, and community engagement. Methodologically, the research employs a comparative case study and synthesizes best practices into an integrated strategy tailored for Libya. The findings emphasize that effective flood risk management cannot be achieved through structural measures alone; rather, an adaptive, multi-stage approach combining infrastructure, policy, and societal readiness is necessary.

Aqil, H., Tindall, J., & Moran, E. (2012). Water Security and Interconnected Challenges in Libya.

Ashoor, A. (2024). Derna’s Daniel Flood: A Tale of Neglect, Warnings, and Prior Recommendations. Geography Department Conference.

Ashoor, A. A. R. (2022). Estimation of the surface runoff depth of Wadi Derna Basin by integrating the geographic information systems and Soil Conservation Service (SCS-CN) model. Journal of Pure & Applied Sciences, 21(2), 90–100. https://doi.org/10.51984/jopas.v21i2.2137

Ashoor, A., & Eladawy, A. (2024). Navigating catastrophe: lessons from Derna amid intensified flash floods in the Anthropocene. Euro-Mediterranean Journal for Environmental Integration, 9(3), 1125–1140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41207-024-00566-4

Basher, R. (2006). Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 364(1845), 2167–2182. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1819

Beck, S. (2012). Between Tribalism and Trust: The IPCC Under the "Public Microscope" Nature and Culture, 7(2), 151–173. https://doi.org/10.3167/nc.2012.070203

Chan, F. K. S., Yang, L. E., Mitchell, G., Wright, N., Guan, M., Lu, X., Wang, Z., Montz, B., & Adekola, O. (2022). Comparison of sustainable flood risk management by four countries – the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan – and the implications for Asian coastal megacities. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 22(8), 2567–2588. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022

Cole, J. (2008). Learning lessons from the 2007 floods: the final recommendations of the Pitt Review. Royal United Services Institute. https://www.rusi.org/publication/learning-lessons-2007-floods-final-recommendations-pitt-review

Defra. (2010). Surface water management plan technical guidance - GOV.UK. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/69342/pb13546-swmp-guidance-100319.pdf

Der Most, H., Tánczos, I., De Bruijn, K., & Wagenaar, D. (2014, November). New risk-based standards for flood protection in the Netherlands. ICFM6 - International Conference On Flood Management.

Enning-Rowsell, E., Ashley, R., Evans, E., & Hall, J. (2004). Future flooding - scientific summary. Volume 1 - Future risks and their drivers. https://www.thenbs.com/PublicationIndex/documents/details?Pub=DTI&DocID=304103

Ferdous, M. R., Di Baldassarre, G., Brandimarte, L., & Wesselink, A. (2020). The interplay between structural flood protection, population density, and flood mortality along the Jamuna River, Bangladesh. Regional Environmental Change, 20(1), 5. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01600-1

File:Flood warning.JPG - Wikimedia Commons. (2012). https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flood_warning.JPG

File:River Levee Cross Section Figure.svg - Wikimedia Commons. (2022). https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:River_Levee_Cross_Section_Figure.svg

Green, C. (2017). Competent authorities for the flood risk management plan – reflections on flood and spatial planning in E ngland. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 10(2), 195–204. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12097

Grigg, N. S. (2024). Two Decades of Integrated Flood Management: Status, Barriers, and Strategies. Climate, 12(5), 67. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12050067

Haque, C. E., Azad, M. A. K., & Choudhury, M.-U.-I. (2019). Discourse of Flood Management Approaches and Policies in Bangladesh: Mapping the Changes, Drivers, and Actors. Water, 11(12), 2654. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11122654

Heezik, A. V. (2008). Battle over the rivers. Two hundred years of river policy in the Netherlands.

Hewson, T., Ashoor, A., Boussetta, S., Emanuel, K., Lagouvardos, K., Lavers, D., Magnusson, L., Pillosu, F., & Zsoter, E. (2024). Medicane Daniel: an extraordinary cyclone with devastating impacts. ECMWF Newsletter, 33–47.

Jongman, B., Koks, E. E., Husby, T. G., & Ward, P. J. (2014). Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14(5), 1245–1255. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1245-2014

Klijn, F., Asselman, N., & Wagenaar, D. (2018). Room for Rivers: Risk Reduction by Enhancing the Flood Conveyance Capacity of The Netherlands’ Large Rivers. Geosciences, 8(6), 224. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8060224

Klijn, F., de Bruin, D., de Hoog, M. C., Jansen, S., & Sijmons, D. F. (2013). Design quality of room-for-the-river measures in the Netherlands: role and assessment of the quality team (Q-team). International Journal of River Basin Management, 11(3), 287–299. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2013.811418

Kotb, A., Taha, A. I., Elnazer, A. A., & Basheer, A. A. (2024). Global insights on flood risk mitigation in arid regions using geomorphological and geophysical modeling from a local case study. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 19975. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-69541-x

Letsch, L., Dasgupta, S., & Robinson, E. J. Z. (2023). Tackling flooding in Bangladesh in a changing climate. The London School of Economics and Political Science.

Nasa Earth Observatory. (2009). Three Gorges Dam, China.

Nasa Earth Observatory. (2022). Floods Swamp Bangladesh.

Normand, J. C. L., & Heggy, E. (2024). Assessing flash flood erosion following storm Daniel in Libya. Nature Communications, 15(1), 6493. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49699-8

Rentschler, J., Salhab, M., & Jafino, B. A. (2022). Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries. Nature Communications, 13(1), 3527. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30727-4

Silva, W., Dijkman, J. P. M., & Loucks, D. P. (2004). Flood management options for The Netherlands. International Journal of River Basin Management, 2(2), 101–112. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2004.9635225

Tabari, H. (2020). Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 13768. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70816-2

Thorne, C. (2014). Geographies of UK flooding in 2013/4. The Geographical Journal, 180(4), 297–309. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12122

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). (2006). Global survey of early warning systems | UNDRR. Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning. https://www.undrr.org/publication/global-survey-early-warning-systems

White, G. F. (1942). HUMAN ADJUSTMENT TO FLOODS: A GEOGRAPHICAL APPROACH TO THE FLOOD PROBLEM IN THE UNITED STATES - ProQuest [ The University of Chicago]. https://www.proquest.com/openview/022b633f9e68393366b629d1360cd0d8/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y

World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (2010). Guidelines on early warning systems and application of nowcasting and warning operations. In WMO. https://library.wmo.int/records/item/58692-guidelines-on-early-warning-systems-and-application-of-nowcasting-and-warning-operations#.XHUcT02oufC

Zschau, J., & Küppers, A. (Eds.). (2003). Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55903-7

• HTML

• PDF

• Water Science and Technology

Copyright (c) 2024 Abdelwanees Ashoor, Hakim S. Abdelgader

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Open Access Licences
User rights
All articles published open access will be immediately and permanently free for everyone to read and download, copy and distribute.